Zimbabwe Political Unrest: Similar To An Unfolding Military Coup

Zimbabwe remained without a clear political leader on Friday in the face of conflicting reports about the apparent military coup on the country’s long-ruling president, Robert Mugabe.

Some sources have portrayed the strongman leader’s departure as a “done deal,” and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai called for Mugabe’s resignation in a news conference Thursday. Yet other reports have suggested that he is refusing to cede power and resisting attempts to mediate a plan for a peaceful exit.

“It’s a sort of stand-off, a stalemate,” one source told Reuters. ” [Mugabe allies] are insisting the president must finish his term.”

Mugabe made his first public appearance on Friday since the military acted earlier this week, attending a graduation ceremony at Zimbabwe’s Open University. 

Confusion reigned over who would take control of Zimbabwe from Mugabe, if he were to end his 37-year authoritarian grip on the country. Former vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was ousted earlier this month, said he planned to address the country as its head of state “when the time is right.” He had reportedly been working with the military and the opposition on a post-Mugabe vision for more than a year.

Is there a coup happening in Zimbabwe?

Despite the army’s show of force and apparent takeover of state television, military officials have so far denied they are attempting to depose Mugabe. On state television, army spokesman Maj. Gen. S. B. Moyo said, “We wish to make this abundantly clear: This is not a military takeover of government.”

Instead, the army claimed that it has temporarily seized control in order to remove “criminals” surrounding Mugabe and “pacify a degenerating political, social and economic situation.”

But the situation in Zimbabwe certainly seems to have most of the elements of a coup. Military vehicles are occupying key parts of the capital; the state broadcaster appears under military control; and Mugabe has spent hours detained in his home with no direct word from him or his politically powerful wife.

South African President Jacob Zuma’s office said in a statement Wednesday that Zuma had talked to Mugabe, and the Zimbabwean ruler was “confined to his home but said that he was fine.”

Mugabe has been the leader of Zimbabwe since 1980, when he helped the country gain independence after a long struggle against colonial rule. Throughout his presidency, 93-year-old Mugabe has held on to power through crackdowns on opposition and dissent. Even as Zimbabwe’s economy collapsed in the past decade and Mugabe drew harsh international condemnation, he found ways to remain in control.

In recent years, Mugabe’s advanced age and mental lapses have grown increasingly apparent. He often sleeps through public events, has been oblivious while delivering the wrong speech to Parliament and seemed unfit for even basic ceremonial duties.

How did this start?

The current crisis stems from a political shake-up earlier this month, but the roots of it go back much further.

On Nov. 6, Mugabe decided to fire Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa. The move caused unrest in the president’s ruling ZANU-PF party and the army. Mnangagwa has support among the military and was seen as a potential successor to Mugabe when the president likely dies in office.

As Mugabe’s health noticeably deteriorated in the past year, the question of who will succeed his rule has become more pressing. This has led to a heated standoff between Grace Mugabe and Mnangagwa, which even included the first lady having to publicly deny that she attempted to poison her rival after he became ill last month.

Mnangagwa’s ouster seems to have been a catalyst for these longstanding tensions to boil over, as it appeared that Grace Mugabe; whose political capital has grown in the past few years, had won out and positioned herself as a top contender for the presidency after her husband’s death.

But amid the ouster of Mnangagwa and the subsequent purge of his allies from government offices, the military decided this week that it would assert its power. On Monday, a military general issued a statement threatening to step in if the purges didn’t stop. The army then took action on Tuesday night, and now appears to be in control.

What happens next? 

It’s unclear. There’s still a ton of uncertainty about the military’s intentions. Even the locations of key players in the crisis aren’t known for sure, as unconfirmed reports place Grace Mugabe in Namibia. 

There has been no sign of violence so far in the military action, and there have not been public demonstrations either in favor of it or against it. Foreign officials and regional leaders have called for calm and the country to avoid conflict, saying they are closely monitoring the situation.

Embassies in Zimbabwe, including the United Kingdom and United States, have issued statements instructing their citizens in the country to shelter in place and monitor the news for updates.

Although the situation is still unfolding, there is a strong possibility that this is the beginning of the end for Mugabe’s rule and his status as the world’s oldest serving president. See video here.