Always one of the Oscars’
most thrilling categories, this year’s Best Supporting Actress race offers an
eclectic lineup representing the array of talent Hollywood offers today.
There’s 87-year-old veteran Lois Smith and 24-year-old newcomer Bria Vinaite;
there are musical numbers, pop-star transformations and undersung troupers
who’ve long awaited their due.
With a few key players moving into the Best
Actress lineup ― namely Allison Williams in “Get Out” and Brooklynn Prince in
“The Florida Project” ― this contest has been whittled down in recent
weeks. For now, it looks like a two-way challenge between Allison Janney
and Laurie Metcalf, with a handful of spoilers waiting in the wings.
Ranked according to their likelihood of being
nominated, here are the 16 women who will hope to earn one of five spots on
Jan. 23.
16 Michelle
Pfeiffer, “mother!”
Say what you will about “mother!,” but it’s
almost inarguable that Michelle Pfeiffer is its highlight. After taken a
four-year hiatus, Pfeiffer has enough of a comeback narrative going right
now that she can remain a factor in this contest despite the movie not becoming
the box-office bonanza that Paramount hoped for. The three-time nominee tears
through “mother!” with a vengeance, practically daring us to question her
power as an actress.
15 Michelle
Williams, “The Greatest Showman”
Exactly what’s in store with “The Greatest
Showman” has yet to be seen. This big, colorful circus musical — the only
non-“Star Wars” contender that hasn’t screened for press — boasts a host of
ladies awaiting their splashy curtain calls. The most famous of them is
Michelle Williams, who’s also on the Best Actress manifest for “All the Money
in the World.” But if “Showman” is worth anything, Williams will have to
compete against three co-stars: Broadway dynamo Keala Settle, Zendaya and
the always great Rebecca Ferguson. Williams and Settle get solo numbers, which
helped Emma Stone (“La La Land”), Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”) and Rita
Moreno (“West Side Story”).
14 Carey
Mulligan, “Mudbound”
The size of the “Mudbound” cast could be its
Achilles’ heel. With this many strong performances, how can anyone
choose just one — especially when Mary J. Blige is receiving most of the praise? In
another year, Carey Mulligan could have snuck in for her reserved turn as an
unhappy farm wife in racist Mississippi.
13 Tatiana
Maslany, “Stronger”
Most of the “Stronger” prestige revolves
around Jake Gyllenhaal, but two of the woman in his character’s orbit
are making names for themselves, too. Two-time nominee Miranda Richardson gives
a lived-in performance as a troubled mother, but it’s Tatiana Maslany who’s
collecting the most largess. This movie isn’t singular enough to prevail, but
Maslany remains on prognosticators’ lips, having elevating a girlfriend role to
a textured portrait of a conflicted Bostonite struggling to find her way in the
midst of tragedy.
12 Kristin
Scott Thomas, “Darkest Hour”
It’s been two long decades since Kristin Scott
Thomas earned her only Oscar nomination to date, for “The English Patient.” In
“Darkest Hour,” she gives Clementine Churchill a graceful heft that
elevates the character beyond a typical wife-in-a-biopic sideshow. The
movie has far more going for it than its apparent Oscar-bait dressing, but
most of the attention will center on Gary Oldman, who transforms as
Winston Churchill via thick makeup and actorly affectations.
11 Bria
Vinaite, “The Florida Project”
I omitted 7-year-old “Florida Project”
breakout Brooklynn Prince from my Best Actress roster, assuming
she’d go supporting. But A24 opted not to commit category
fraud, which makes more room here for her 24-year-old co-star Bria Vinaite,
whom director Sean Baker found on Instagram. Like Prince, Vinaite has a
naturalism so blissfully unrefined it’s as if she were making a documentary.
She may be too much of a Hollywood outsider at this point to join the Academy’s
ranks, unless the group shows a lot of love for “The Florida Project,”
which could clinch a Best Picture slot.
10 Lesley
Manville, “Phantom Thread”
If there’s an MVP of “Phantom Thread,” it’s
Lesley Manville, whose glares are worth a thousand daggers. Playing the
spinster sister of a fussy dressmaker (Daniel-Day Lewis), Manville may
finally get her due. Best known for her work in Mike Leigh’s movies, the
acclaimed English actress has never been commercial enough to peak in America.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s films are always central to awards conversations, so
this one could elevate Manville’s Hollywood profile.
9 Hong
Chau, “Downsizing”
It’s hard to tell whether “Downsizing” is
completely DOA or a massive sleeper candidate that not enough people are
talking about. In a surprise move, the National Board of Review named it one of
the year’s best movies this week, signaling that it could have legs after all.
And anyway, Oscar voters almost always appreciate Alexander Payne’s actors.
Hong Chau’s publicity team first started courting press attention over the
summer, touting her work in “Downsizing” and HBO’s “Big Little Lies.” She walks
away with the former, playing an aggressive Vietnamese activist who
becomes the story’s emotional core.
8 Lois
Smith, “Marjorie Prime”
If 87-year-old Lois Smith earns a nomination,
she’ll tie with Gloria Stuart to become the oldest acting honoree in the
Oscars’ history. To wit, it would double as a de facto lifetime achievement
prize, especially since “Marjorie Prime” went relatively unnoticed when it was
released in August. Smith, who revives a role she originated onstage, is the
film’s highlight, and she has the added benefit of a magnificent appearance in
the much more popular “Lady Bird.”
7 Melissa
Leo, “Novitiate”
Thanks to the controversial
for-your-consideration ad she purchased for herself in 2011, Melissa Leo is
cemented in Oscar history. That adds to her leverage when it comes to
a small movie like “Novitiate,” which hasn’t cracked $1 million at the box
office. She chews plenty of scenery as a devout, bitter nun contending with the sudden
progressivism introduced by the Catholic Church. In the end, though, this
movie’s limited shelf life won’t do her any favors.
6 Tiffany
Haddish, “Girls Trip”
The year’s Tiffany Haddish infatuation
is probably getting to me, but it seems like maybe — just maybe — we can
make this nomination happen. After “Girls Trip” became a critical and
commercial success story, Haddish played her cards right with a bangup Showtime
special, a snazzy “Saturday Night Live” hosting gig and a career-defining tweet about informing Barbra Streisand who Cardi
B is. The woman is the very definition of an overnight star. The Academy
is still dominated by older white men, but its newly diversified
membership could be just what Haddish needs. This week, she scored the New
York Film Critics Circle prize — hopefully the first of many
precursor kudos.
5 Octavia
Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Every word that emerges from Octavia
Spencer’s mouth in “The Shape of Water” is pitched to comedic perfection.
Spencer coats her character’s hardships in the same brassy jubilance seen in
her Oscar-anointed roles (“The Help,” “Hidden Figures”). Without even trying,
Spencer nearly steals the movie. But that “nearly” is key. Could this
performance be a tad too similar to her work in the
aforementioned titles? The Academy clearly likes her, but unless “The
Shape of Water” is a gigantic hit at the box office this month, this
go-round could be easy to write off.
4 Mary
J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Mary J. Blige has gotten it percolatin’ in
movies before — “Black Nativity,” “I Can Do Bad All by Myself,” “Rock of Ages”
— but for most intents and purposes, “Mudbound” is her breakthrough role. She
was nominated as such at the Gotham Awards, which inaugurated the season
earlier this week. Blige disappears in “Mudbound,” a sprawling drama about racial tensions in the Jim Crow
South circa World War II. This is exactly the type of movie that registers with
Oscar: topical, stylish and crawling with bravura performances. Alas, it’s a
Netflix release, and the streaming platform has yet to secure a nod for any of
its actors.
3 Holly
Hunter, “The Big Sick”
Far too rarely does a jaunty comedy
sneak one of its supporting players onto the ballot. Perhaps Holly Hunter can
join the likes of Melissa McCarthy in “Bridesmaids,” Amy Adams in
“Junebug” and Marisa Tomei in “My Cousin Vinny.” (Imagine if she and Tiffany
Haddish were nominated!) When “The Big Sick” premiered at Sundance in January,
talk of a nomination for Hunter seemed like one of those pipe dreams that
festival-goers gab about at after-parties. But the movie was a runaway hit over
the summer, and Hunter has remained part of the awards talk. Three days
before Oscar voting begins, Hunter will receive a career achievement prize at
the Palm Springs International Film Festival.
2 Allison
Janney, “I, Tonya”
Hollywood’s resident
scene-stealer, Allison Janney’s remarkable six Emmy wins make her an award
show pro. It almost doesn’t even matter that she’s never been nominated for an
Oscar: Janney is one of those fixtures whose name alone signals acclaim. She’s
playing another kooky mama in “I, Tonya,” specifically Tonya Harding’s foul-mouthed, boozy, parrot-toting mama. The role
encapsulates Janney’s flourishing career, containing shades of “Drop
Dead Gorgeous,” “Mom” and “The Way, Way Back.” If the biopic becomes a hit when
it opens next week, the Toronto Film Festival chatter that crowned Janney
will skate on.
1 Laurie
Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
With three Emmys and a Tony to her name,
Laurie Metcalf is halfway toward EGOT certification. What’s more, “Lady Bird“ is on its way toward becoming a major hit. The
tremendous reviews have helped it earn $12 million and counting, a great
start for a limited release booked in fewer than 800 theaters. It’s
also helped to keep the buzz surrounding Metcalf’s performance
alive. The Oscars tend to prefer showboaters in this category, but
Metcalf is one of those actresses whose veteran status makes her an instant
pacesetter. She’s affecting as a middle-class mother wading through everyday
stresses and setbacks.
The Article Originally Appeared On HuffPost
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